Reflections on China and India
http://reflections.chindia-insights.com
Reflections on China and india
Chinese consumers’ tight fists
The magic eight
Eight
is a lucky number in
Eight
is also the percentage by which, the economists believe, the Chinese economy
must grow to provide jobs to the millions of students graduating from
Universities, or the rural folks migrating to the cities in search of a better
life. The first two quarters of this year have been difficult –
Clearly
the magic has been achieved with a lot of stimulus - Chinese government is trying to spend four
trillion yuan in stimulating the economy. Money is being poured into building
roads, bridges and some income generating activities. In the first nine months
of the GDP growth of 7.7 percent, 7.3 percent came from investment and 4
percentage points from consumption (decease in exports brought down the total
figure to 7.7%). Exports continue to decline, though as the mood in the
Consumer
Economist say (softly in China and more shrilly in the West) that the Chinese consumer must spend more to compensate for the loss of exports and redress the global imbalance where the American consumers were sustaining the global economy with their profligate consumption of Chinese goods and the Chinese Consumers saving as much as one-fourth of their incomes. Hence the critical question now is whether the Chinese consumer will spend more and save the global economy.
The traditional reason that is given for the Chinese consumer to save a large proportion of their income is that a large number of them do not enjoy social security and need to set aside for their retirement and possible medical expenses. Secondly, culturally Chinese are considered to be thrifty and saving rather than consumption is considered a virtue. While these factors – whether cultural or structural – do contribute to the Chinese households stashing away a large proportion of their income there are other social and emotional reasons for this behaviour.
The other barriers to consumption
Owning
an house ranks among the most important desires and goals for a Chinese. The
idea of living in rented accommodation is alien and unacceptable. Traditionally
Chinese have liked the idea of stability and state provided that by allotting
life long accommodation, which you keep even after retirement. With state
housing gone for most, the Chinese are rushing to buy apartments. The strong
demand coupled with a relatively controlled supply has made the cost of housing
disproportionate to the consumers’ income. Today the average per capita annual urban
disposable income in
On the other hand social norms today make the idea of continuing to live with the parents after marriage as nearly inconceivable (no pun intended) and no self-respecting woman will accept a man’s hand in marriage unless the hand holds the keys to an apartment. With low starting salaries even for University graduates, parents need to bear the burden of saving for the down payment. The high mortgage payments in relation to the income further reduces the spending ability of the consumers.
Secondly,
while impending marriage of the child brings a substantial financial burden for
the family, the university education before that is also a formidable expense.
As
Thirdly the average Chinese consumer is value driven. Products receive a microscopic scrutiny and intensive comparison and valuation. Prices are compared thoroughly and promotions and deals welcomed enthusiastically. While there is a trend of premiumisation, it is not universal and applies more to products of visible consumption which can make the consumer look good and successful. Additionally the disappointment that many consumers faced, when the salary increases and bonuses were less than generous in the beginning of the year or the business growth challenged, has thrown a spanner on the path of moving to premium products.
Hence while the Chinese consumer will gradually spend more, and consumption as a proportion of the Chinese GDP will move up from its uniquely low level today, the movement is going to be gradual unless significant changes are made to make housing and education more accessible and affordable and the consumer regains the confidence of continued prosperity.
Written by Ashok Sethi, TNS
ashok.set@gmail.com
ashok.sethi@tns-global.com
A Shoe for a Shoe
Wiser
counsel seems to have prevailed. Muntadhar al-Zeidi, condemned for three years
in Iraqi jail for throwing shoes at George Bush is out in six months They
pronounced a three years sentence for a brave visionary who tried to change the
world through innovative thinking! If we need to put Al-Zeidi, the Iraqi hero
for flinging his shoes at George Bush behind bars, why not put all the marketing
gurus and most of all Philip Kotler in jail, whose text book of marketing
management clearly describes the marketing strategies of market expansion and
product extension.
It
was a remarkable demonstration of the innovative thinking that the Guangdong
Shoe Export Association hired Al-Zeidy to throw a pair of shoes at George Bush
and demonstrate a new use for the product to boost its sagging demand. Imagine,
if people started throwing shoes as well as wearing them? With millions of appropriate
and deserving targets and billions of potential throwers, the factories can
open their gates again and the workers can get back to the task of stitching
the uppers to the soles. The Chinese government’s buy-in and support was
secured, and the Prime Minister Wen Jia Bao himself volunteered to be the
spokesman and a target for shoes in
A whole new world
Special shoes will be designed for bankers, made from sub-prime materials and leveraged at the heels. The politicians will get thick leather shoes to match the thickness of their own hides. The insurance companies will get shoes, the risk of wearing which will match the risk profile of the assets that they insured. We could even get rating agencies to rate the shoe in terms of aerodynamics, the speed and distance to which it can travel, and how much it will hurt when it will hurt the target.
The market could be segmented both by the thrower and the throwee – stilettos for the highbrow, the humble canvas shoe for the amateur, sneakers for the nimble, athletic types and budget shoes for those on a shoe-string. Shoes could be color coordinated for maximum impact – black shoes for Obama, white for Bush, brown for Manmohan Singh and yellow for Wen Jiabao.
Shoe for a shoe
The mind boggles at the opportunity, if the principle of “a tooth for a tooth and a nail for a nail” could be extended to “a shoe for a shoe”. The great leaders and the eminent public speakers, would then come to the meetings equipped with their own set of shoes, to fling them back at any miscreant who dares to throw one at them. Imagine public meetings, in which shoes are flying like rockets in each direction and every swing contributing to the rescue of shoe industry in Southern China, and ultimately to the rejuvenation of the global economy.
“Let me make it very clear,” president Obama said. “White House will not abandon the view that a shoe is a wearable accessory, whose primary role is protection and adornment of the feet. However, if it can find additional utility as a saviour of the global economy, I am sure Secretary Geitner will welcome it with open arms.”
In
Dongguan in
Written
by Ashok Sethi
Ashok.set@gmail.com
What the current environment means for fine tuning marketing strategies in China
There is no time in China like today. On one side it is buffeted by the tsunami of global economic crisis, on the other side its consumer base is rapidly increasing in size and value. How can marketers make the best of this unique juncture in time and deploy the most effective strategies for establishing a firm position in China.
Presented below ten strategies that the marketers can consider to thrive in these times.
1. New strategies for new times
The changed economic conditions is affecting consumer behaviour and attitudes. Can the marketing strategies based on the understanding of the consumers in the prosperous times still hold water now. Consumers are changing their behaviour in several different ways and various underlying attitudes and values govern these changes. It is critical for us to re-look at the consumer and refresh our understanding to fine tune the marketing strategies.
2. Segment and decide
Not all the consumers react to the environmental changes in the same way. Different consumers have different reactions to the financial challenge – ranging from an extreme tightening of the purse-strings, to a nonchalant continuation of the current indulgences. Tightening may be reflected in different tangible and psychological ways. Manufacturers also need to offer a range of different solutions and propositions to meet these changes in behavior.
Additionally, different consumer segments may be affected to different extent – and growth may vary from segment to segment. In luxury goods, for example, connoisseurship and indulgence segments may grow more as compared to the pure status segment, as these consumers’ relationship with luxury segments is not only emotional but also very tangible.
3. Find new pastures
In these times, growth may be easier to come about through geographical expansion, than competitive fight in the current markets. The impact of the slowdown is more pronounced in larger cities – though the smaller towns and villages are also affected if they relied on export based industries. Hence while growth may be challenged in the larger cities, it may be a good time to set forth and explore new markets in county towns, townships and villages. These are the markets which are growing at a faster pace and offer greater return for investments.
4. Emphasize value – re look at your brand portfolio
It does not take rocket science to conclude that in these times the consumers will look for value. The challenge is to offer value without compromising the image. There are different strategies to deliver value – some are appropriate and some ill-advised – some will damage the brand equity permanently, some will keep the image intact but still help adjust to the times. Research shows that direct price reductions are likely to damage more than temporary discounts, and decreasing pack sizes more harmful that increasing pack size at the same price.
5. Look at your distribution channels
A strained economic situation not only changes the consumer, but also changes the shopper. Consumers are normally more attached to the brand than the retail store, hence their first choice is not to change the brand, but try to locate the same brand at a cheaper price at another store.
With more time at hand and greater incentive to economize, more consumers are likely to shop at hyper markets than the more ubiquitous but pricier supermarkets and convenience stores. The search for value and bargains will also turn the shoppers to internet shopping–the only channel that will grow even faster than hypermarkets
6. Help the consumer – teach her, train her, comfort and reassure her
Research indicates that Chinese consumers’ response to the economic challenge is cerebral. When opportunities are fewer and the competition more fierce the Chinese consumers will want to further enhance their skills and knowledge. Clearly it is very good news for companies teaching English or computer programming. But the opportunity is not confined to these firms – the FMCG industry could also take a more educative communication stance - wine makers could try to educate the consumers about appreciating fine wines, cosmetic companies could offer lessons on skin care and food companies could coach on diet and nutrition.
7. Family, home and security
When the going gets tough, the consumers tend to take comfort at home and in the arms of the loved ones. Recession is the ideal time to catch up with friends, take the children to the park and visit the parents, and in the process enjoy emotional warmth to compensate for the coldness of the economic climate. The children are likely to pay a heavy price for this, with parents having more time and inclination as well as a renewed determination to help their children with their studies. This offers opportunities to promote in-home consumption, rather than out of home consumption – which in many categories such as alcohol, is much more expensive.
8. Communication
It is not just the product but also the message which needs to reflect the current consumer mind. The communication messages of today needs to reflect sentiments of care and protection, rational and considered behaviour and performance and value These tones of communication, which always appealed to the Chinese consumers, are likely to find even greater resonance in these times.
9.. Go digital
For the largest internet population in the world, internet has so far been a tool of entertainment and information – less so a tool for commerce. However the initial barriers are being overcome and consumers are discovering the joys of internet shopping. The attributes consumer associate with internet shopping are variety, enables detailed evaluation and comparisons and competitive prices. These are the attributes the consumer will be looking in the times of economic slowdown.
10, Keep a permanent hand on the pulse of the consumer
These are dynamic times. Things are changing at a phenomenal pace. As a result, so is the consumer mood and sentiment, which will have an effect on her decision making and the brands and products that she buys. If marketers don’t feel her pulse all the time, they could go wrong. One can not just listen to the consumer once a year - marketers need to put their ears firmly on the ground and listen to every change of beat, every nuance of the consumer mood and continue to fine tune the strategy.,
Published in South China Morning Post, July 27, 2009
Written by Ashok Sethi, TNS China
Ten Consumer Behaviors and Trends to Watch During Economic Slowdown
The consumer mood today
Marketing pundits believe that condoms, DVDs, lipstick and junk food are likely to gain prominence during economic slowdown. Will the Chinese consumers’ behavior be similar in these times of strain? TNS China conducted a study in urban China to validate or explode these hypotheses and myths and we present here the key changes that we can expect in consumer behavior in these difficult times in urban China.
On the whole, the urban Chinese consumer is facing the crisis with stoic optimism. Half the consumers feel that despite the downturn their incomes in 2009 will actually increase in comparison to 2008. 31% expect to retain the 2008 income level and only 19% expect a decline. The optimism is based on the fact that most consumers feel that their lives will only be slightly singed by the fury of the global economic meltdown. However on the whole the year 2009 for the Chinese consumer will be a time for reflection and an opportunity to seek a balance in life – balance between work and play, friends and family, saving and spending, excitement and peace – in their quest to seek a better quality of life.
1. Health is wealth
When the wise man propounded that “health is wealth” he possibly did not expect that we may one day have a time when health is the only wealth that people possess. In a situation you can do little about the economic health, it becomes even more important to preserve the physical health. While gyms should still have their treadmills rolling strong as enthusiasts try to match their body weight graph with the stock market trend, most consumers will adopt the natural and free exercise of walking and jogging in their quest for healthier and slimmer bodies.
2. Goodbye luxury
“It has been said that man is a rational animal. All my life I have been searching for evidence which could support this,” said Bertrand Russell. He would possibly be pleased with the consumer desire to rationalize their spending and cut down on luxury goods in 2009. Consumers say that they plan to spend less on jewelry, bags and watches in 2009 as compared to 2008. The luxury goods manufacturers who were expecting China’s appetite for luxury to make it the largest market in the world, would need to wait till the economy turns around.
3. More skin-care and colors
Beauty may just be skin deep, and the recession is deeper. But the Chinese consumers still feel that a glowing skin and luminous lips could act as a shield against the pain of the economic crisis. Need to look good is never more pronounced than when the times are tough. A heady feeling from a positive reflection in the mirror and admiring glances from friends and colleagues could almost match and even compensate for the lightness of the wallet.
4. Skill enhancement and training
American consumers may have over mortgaged their houses, but the Chinese consumers will never mortgage their future. Learning has always been seen in China as a ladder of success. Dealing with difficult times calls for enhanced skills and capabilities. What could be a better time to invest in self enhancement than when employment is scarce, the salaries are low and the work load light. English language courses, already a booming business will get a further fillip. Consumers will try to teach themselves software, web page designing, and even belly dancing to enhance their chances for fruitful employment and a healthy pay check.
5. Digital world
With nearly 300 million internet users (the largest in the world) China was already hurtling towards a digital age. The rapid adoption of the digital media, of course, precedes the recession. Internet is where the Chinese go to look for a better job, download free movies and songs and just engage in incessant chatter with friends. In times like these, they expect to rely on the net even more to search for a better job, complain about their poorly paid jobs in their blogs and upload videos for their temporary leisurely existence. We believe the recession will further enhance the role of internet in the consumer lives in China. The availability of relatively inexpensive 3G mobile services will definitely also facilitate greater adoption and usage.
6. Home sweet home
The joy of family life will be further enhanced and family relationships will be even more delicious with the flavors of home cooking wafting from the kitchen. Chinese consumers plan to cook more at home in 2009 than they managed in 2008. The competition to home cooking comes from cheap fast food restaurants and road side stalls – both of whom are likely to lose business from this segment in 2009. However, the overall business of McDonald’s, KFC and Nan Xiang Xiao Long dumpling chain store may still see an increase in 2009, as consumers also down trade from more expensive restaurants.
If you need to spend more time at home, it also makes sense to vacuum the floor and tidy up the place, Chinese homes are going to look much more neater in 2009 and the lower toil demanded by the workplace may be substituted by efforts at home.
7. Shop wisely
While shopping at hypermarkets has its attractions, it does call for time at hand, With more time and greater incentive to economize, more consumers are likely to shop at hyper markets than the more ubiquitous but pricier supermarkets and convenience stores. The search for value and bargains will also turn the shoppers to internet shopping – the only channel that will grow even faster than hypermarkets.
8. In-home entertainment in, out-of-home entertainment out
When the slow speed of the internet connection makes downloading a movie difficult, we in China have the option of spending a dollar to buy the pirated DVD. If we did want to make an evening out of it, with popcorn and all, we would spend thirty dollars for two tickets in one of the many multiplex cinemas. While conventional wisdom suggests many alternative uses for the thirty dollars (including putting under the mat for a rainy day) the consumers are unwilling to give up this pleasure. Cinema ticket sales are likely to remain high, as long as the movie industry can come up with compelling attractions to help the consumers with a few hours of blissful escape from the harsh reality.
Bars and karaoke flourish in economic booms, when clients are entertained and deals are made on favorable terms with suitably mellowed potential business associates. Not unexpectedly the recession will mean that entrepreneurs and managers do not have to listen to potential business partners sing out of tune, in the hope of securing a juicy contract. Less cognac will be poured (sale of beer and other cheap alcohol consumed at home or low priced eateries is unlikely to be affected).
9. Social harmony of a kind
Absorbed in the relentless wheels of economic activity, the Chinese consumer has been accumulating a feeling of guilt for neglecting the immediate as well as the broader family. Recession is the ideal time to catch up with friends, take the children to the park and visit your parents, and in the process enjoy emotional warmth to compensate for the coldness of the economic climate. The children are likely to pay a heavy price for this, with parents having more time and inclination as well as a renewed determination to help their children with their studies.
10. Sex and Love
Chinese consumers do not really plan to change their sexual habits during the recession. However with a strong intention to spend more time with spouse or partner, the consequences can not be predicted!
Some consumers, however, may be forced to give up expensive mistresses, particularly if they continue to demand luxury jewelry and handbags. The demand of condoms, may go up slightly as couples decide to postpone having a child till after the recession. Though as a counter trend, some women are said to be rushing to have a “financial crisis baby” as the law prevents the employers from laying off pregnant women and nursing mothers!
The Shanghai Adult Toys and Reproductive Health Exhibition attracted 20% less exhibitors this year. Is it that the industry which specializes in providing stimulation, is itself in need of a stimulus package! These are hard times indeed!
Written by Ashok Sethi, TNS China
The most important consumer insight from China
China’s most important insight
Gaining consumer insights is critical for marketers to design optimal strategies for the large and complex market of China. Of course, there are many insights we can share about the Chinese consumers – their peculiarities, idiosyncrasies as well as common values and guiding principles that they often shares with consumers in the rest of the world. Each of these would be a relevant insight and could serve as a good input to the development of marketing strategy for China.
However, in this article, I want to talk about just one insight – an insight which I feel is really the most important insight about China. An insight which is enduring and universally applicable. And that insight is:
"There is no universally applicable and enduring insight about China."
Now I know some of you may want to contend this – but think about this - if you disagree – you just prove my point – as this insight that I am giving you is also not universal. Of course when I say this, I am exaggerating a bit, but there are two reasons why I exaggerate and there are two points that I would like to make.
Firstly, given the size and complexity of China, Newton’s law of Consumer trends applies to China. For every consumer trend that you see, there is an opposite, though not necessarily an equal trend. Hence, if I tell you that Chinese consumers are becoming more health conscious – and that is absolutely a valid trend, I also need to tell you that junk food restaurants have been growing in the country at a phenomenal rate. Obviously, they are catering to two different segments of the market – both of which are growing. Or at times it could even apply to the same consumers – who display different behaviour at different occasions or situations.
Similarly If I mention that for the market for luxury goods is expanding, and consumers are willing to pay a premium for better quality, there is also a phenomenon that consumers down trade for products which do not have social or image connotations. And hence we also see that private labels, though still small in China, are also growing significantly.
Or if we say that the Chinese consumer is getting westernized – in terms of adoption of Western food (at least junk food), or customs, (e.g. Christmas and Valentine’s day are celebrated with great gusto in China) at the same time I need to point out that there is a resurgence of interest in traditional culture, studying Confucius philosophy and Chinese art and design. Even if you take a very broad trend such as urbanization – and it is said that 10-15 million Chinese are urbanized every year, this year there is a reverse trend of sort as 20 million migrant workers return to their villages as they can’t find a job in the cities.
I think from a marketing point of view this fact has significant implications. As it means that if your opportunities and threats may not be just determined by the obvious trend but also by the counter trend.
Secondly, China is a market of explosive change. For example in the past 5 years, sales of luxury goods have tripled, sales of luxury automobiles have risen five fold. But it is not just luxury products - the sales of passenger cars have grown 2.5 times. The number of internet users has tripled to 300 million to make it the world’s largest internet population. Even if you look at consumer goods – the fabric softener market has more than doubled in the past 5 years. Since I came to Shanghai a little over 6 years ago, the average salary of a Shanghainese has more than doubled and in my company it has tripled (I wish the same was true for me!)– as we pay well to attract the best.
If this is the pace of change that is happening in the market, and the marketing landscape is changing so rapidly, the insights that we discover may not be very enduring and hence for marketers, it is necessary to keep a permanent hand on the consumer pulse – once in 4 or 5 years usage and attitude research studies will not do.
Written by: Ashok Sethi, TNS China
Country road, (don’t) take me home
The reluctant march home
Twenty million migrant workers from the Chinese countryside, who have lost their jobs in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, do not wish to go home. Driven by the export boom, nearly 130 million rural Chinese had left their farms to toil in urban workshops and construction sites, sending money home to supplement the meager agricultural income. Unfortunately last year the Wall Street brought down the Main Street, which in turn resulted in the closure of factories in China which churned out products enjoyed by American consumers with borrowed money. Last month the Chinese government revealed that 20 million of these workers have lost their jobs and will possibly need to return to their rural homes.
The workers do not want to go home as their income from tilling their small farms is woefully inadequate to provide them with a comfortable existence and even a modicum of savings and security. The per capita rural income in 2007 was less than one third of what the urban Chinese enjoyed. Despite the harsh conditions of work and stay in the cities and the emotional pain of living separately from their loved ones, they willingly accepted this existence to be able to provide their families with a better quality of life.
The official deliberations
Not surprisingly, the welfare of these migrant workers and the economy in general was salient in the deliberations of China’s top legislative body (National People’s Congress or the NPC ) and the top advisory group (CPPCC) which meet every year in Beijing around this time. As can be expected in China, scale is important and the meetings are held with great pomp and ceremony. The sheer size is staggering – NPC has nearly 3000 deputies, and the CPPCC National Committee has 2,235 members. Unlike the House of Lords in UK and the Rajya Sabha in India, attendance is high even in the advisory body and members are expected to remain awake during the proceedings. The publicly released pictures of the meetings show the members in a state of significant alertness, despite sometimes soporific speeches of fellow members and leaders. Previous meetings have debated, modified and adopted other important issues such as the Labor Contract Law and the Property Law. Discussion on China’s economy has always been prominent, but the tone in the past has been congratulatory and exuding pride. Economic achievement offered much fuel for pride in the past (in the 2008 meeting of the NPC the Chinese Premier Wen Jia Bao had proudly declared that China's economy grew by 65.5 percent over the past five years, or an average annual increase of 10.6 percent)
Not only is the agenda this year single-mindedly focusing on economic development, for the first time this year, in recognition of the need of the hour of judicious spending, the agenda of the meeting itself has been trimmed to 10 days from the usual 14 days. The euphoria of a decade long galloping economy has evaporated and the party officials are scratching their heads for how to keep the gravy train going and continue to provide jobs for the laid of workers as well as the new workforce entering the market (including a crop of 5.5 million university graduates every year). The languishing countryside and the widening urban-rural income gap was always an area of anxiety for the leaders. Guided by this concern, the party leadership in the past raised slogans like “the new socialistic countryside” accompanied by supportive actions such as abolishing the tax on agricultural income. The 2009 meeting clearly recognized that more needs to be done.
The rural stimulus
Research done by TNS in the cities, indicates that the urban Chinese though fearful of the global crisis (63% think that they will be affected slightly and 28% significantly) still sport a staunch optimism. However the rural folks – particularly the migrant workers are already in distress. The workers are obviously not happy to lose an income which they will never able to match with digging the small piece of land back home. They will perhaps be willing to work for even less, driving down the labor prices, and undoing some of the strength they had gained since the adoption of the Labor Contract Law last year. The government is helping out by infrastructure spending in the 4 trillion Yuan stimulus package– including expansion of railways, building roads and housing - much of which will go to rural areas and small towns. It is also trying to boost domestic consumption and cheer the rural masses by offering a 13% subsidy on a range of home appliances ranging from washing machines to mobile phones.
While the new DVD player and a color television may serve as a temporary palliative and help the returned workers while away their time (of which they have no scarcity now) a more lasting smile on their faces can only be achieved through alternate meaningful employment. The workers need an alternative to a miserable though lucrative toil in the cities and leisurely but penurious existence at home. More needs to be done to equip the laid off workers with new skills which make them eligible for other employment opportunities in and around their homes.
Equally important will be to offer them advice, guidance as well as small loans to start village level enterprises which could offer a sustained source of income. Micro-credit, the business of giving small, mortgage free loans in rural communities, which has transformed the lives of millions of peasants in many countries, possibly has a major role to play in China too. The new motorcycle that a rural resident may buy, aided with a newly introduced 13% discount, needs to become a vehicle for entrepreneurship and its engine also serve as an engine for rural growth.
Written by Ashok Sethi, TNS China
March 2009
A Black Year
It was Queen Elizabeth II, who I first heard using the phrase “annus horribilis”. It wasn’t a part of Prince Philip’s anatomy that she was referring to, but to the travails of the recently concluded year of 1992, in which she witnessed the break-up of several family marriages and a fire at Windsor Castle. More recently, the Economist referred to the year 2008 as Wall Street’s annus horribilis – at the end of which, of Wall Street’s five big securities firms, only Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley still remain in recognizable existence.
It has been a shocking and all-pervasive black year – even extending to the White House. However, with a Black in the White House and a Brown at 10 Downing Street, the Indian community is celebrating a hard earned victory, and preparing itself for an age of Indian domination of the world. Black - a color which used to be dreaded in all its shades, and at all places, but particularly on the skin of the female offspring, is no longer an anathema. We expect the Sunday editions of Hindustan Times to soon carry matrimonial advertising mentioning “wheatish skin” with a sense of pride, rather than a tone of apology.
Unilever India, which swelled its corporate coffers on the sales of Fair & Lovely, is already thinking of phasing out the product and is evaluating preliminary concepts of Dark and Comely. China, another country with fondness for fair skin, except on Western journalists (and where, Olay the market leader, refers to the product category more precisely as whitening creams, rather than fairness creams) has started a campaign to educate its people on the benefits of black color. Chinese companies, which are desperately trying to remain in the black, as the rest of the world plunges further into red, also support the change.
The real question is to what extent this victory will benefit the poor blacks who have been receiving a raw deal from the world. A prime example is Michael Jackson, who was sued by the son of King of Bahrain for failing to write a new song and was expecting to be bailed-out by Obama. Michael also received inspiration from Obama’s victory and was seen humming “It don’t matter if you are Black or Brown” but was eventually disappointed and was last reported to be writing Chapter 11 of his autobiography.
Al-Zeidi, the Iraqi journalist, who threw his shoes at George Bush, said that he will continue to throw shoes at all American Presidents, regardless of their color. Asked whether he will match the color of the shoes with the color of the President, he said that in shoe throwing a contrasting, rather than a matching color makes a better mark. That is the reason why he threw a black shoe at Bush and soon plans to order white shoes, in case an opportunity arises to use them on Obama.
In the meanwhile, sipping black coffee in snow white Alaska, Sarah Palin was heard vehemently denying allegations that she is unfamiliar with the concept of contraception. Having five children was her single handed attempt to populate Alaska and increase its share of the electoral college – a mantle that she successfully passed to her sixteen year old daughter. “I hope we will have a black child in our family soon,” she said, hoping that her future generations may succeed in the task that she failed in.
Written by Ashok Sethi
Ashok.set@gmail.com
Love in crisis
The importance of being in love
The Chinese celebrate Valentine’s day on the 7th day of the 7th lunar month.. As if one Valentine’s day was not enough, the people have also whole heartedly embraced the Western Valentine’s day of February 14, as is evident from the spurt of sales promotions and amorous activities seen around this time in the main cities.
It is not surprising, therefore, that love is important for the Chinese - as high as 98% claim that they have ever been in love. In fact falling in love seems to be easy for the Chinese – 76% believe in love at first sight. Surprisingly the sentiment does not wane with age and the belief in first sight Cupid is as strong among the older Chinese as among the younger. On an average a Chinese has been in love 2.5 times, and 10% have been swept off their feet as many as 5 times. They also start their love life relatively early – two in five first fell victims at the tender age of 18 or even less.
Where love has gone
But the Chinese love story has elements of both joy and tragedy. While nearly all have been in love at some point of their lives, regrettably only 37% can say that they feel the sway of the emotion in their hearts today. Age definitely dims the ardor – with only 17% of 45 years and older feeling the tug of love today. Men seem to fall out of love more easily than women – only 32% claim to be in love today as compared to 41% of the women. The words of Ambrose Pierce ( “Love: a temporary insanity, curable by marriage”) seem to ring true as only 24% of the married men and women say that they are still in love, as compared to 94% of unmarried couples. Even among the incurable romantics (who say that they believe in everlasting love) many could not help feeling disillusioned. It would seem that the celebration of Valentine’s day with sending gifts (which is the intention of 36%), dining out (planned by 34%), or an evening out at the movies (17%) for many may be less an expression of passion and romance and more a mechanical ritual.
The lack of love in people’s lives today is particularly poignant as 60% equate love with happiness. This happiness expected or derived out of love seems to come more from the feeling of companionship, affection and understanding than passion and pleasure. Love means passion for only one in ten urban Chinese. Also only for one in five, sex is one of the important meanings of love. While men talk a little more about sex, women perhaps euphemistically refer to “attraction”.
Fidelity and love
The lack of feeling of love today could well be related to a feeling that their partner has not been giving them his or her single–minded attention. Nearly half the people said that they feel they have been cheated by their partner. Whether real or imagined, fidelity seems to be a key ingredient of love in China. The feeling here is “more sinned against than sinning” – only one third admit themselves that they have succumbed to the temptation of an illicit affair, but nearly half are suspicious of their partner’s fidelity.
Written by Ashok Sethi
Based on an online survey done by TNS of 290 Chinese, aged 18-54 in key cities of China. Conducted in February 2009, before Valentine’s day.
Financial crisis with Chinese characteristics
Observing the process of making jiaozi (Chinese dumplings) is an interesting experience. A long and thick strand is extracted from the pile of dough, broken into little pieces, each piece rolled into a thin pancake skin and stuffed with ground meat, chopped green vegetables, or egg. These little parcels are finally steamed, boiled or fried and served steaming hot with a dip of vinegar and optional chillies and mashed garlic. While observing the process and enjoying a portion of jiaozi last week in a small roadside shop near Xizang Road in Shanghai, I was somehow reminded of the packaging of sub-prime loans into delicious looking structured investment vehicles, which were steamed into respectability by the credit agencies and picked up by the financial community with as much relish as I was raising the jiaozi to my mouth.
As if reading my thoughts, the restaurant owner who was rolling jiaozi, broke my reverie with a sudden question, “How is the financial crisis affecting India?” Given the universality of basic education in China, the level of general awareness (though not necessarily the degree of appreciation of the issues) tends to be high. It was not a surprise, therefore, that the dumpling roller from a village in Shandong province seem familiar with the global meltdown and curious about how it is affecting the world. His dumpling business in downtown Shanghai, however, he felt was not particularly vulnerable to the global crisis of confidence.
The mood elsewhere in China, however, is somber and in fact had been since the beginning of this year. According to a newspaper report, the number of people seeking psychological counseling in Beijing has doubled since the beginning of the year, and 85% of these are worried about possible job loss.
The stock prices started tumbling earlier this year and wiped out over half the value of most large companies listed on the Shanghai stock exchange and the savings of many who were enticed to the market by its heady ascent. Once a favorite pastime of the urban Chinese, including retired government workers and grizzled grandmothers, betting on the stock market has turned out be a regrettable indulgence.
The first Chinese victims of the current global financial crisis are the migrant workers who power the exports of cheap toys, garments, shoes and other such products to the Western world. Toy factories in Guangdong province of China are already closing and workers forced to go back to the villages they came from and again face the subsistence existence based on a tiny plot of land. Many, however, are likely to come back to the cities and seek employment in more export-proof industries of China.
Among the general Chinese population, the consumer confidence index is down from a high of 100.8 in October 2007 to 91 in September 2008 (a moderate decline when compared to the plunge in the US consumer confidence from 61.4 to 38 in just a month as reported by the Conference Board). Thrifty by nature and not afflicted by the profligate habits of their American counterparts, the confidence dip in China has not so far translated into a drastic tightening of purse strings or a cataclysmic reduction in consumption. However, the Chinese brow is also writ with worries about the future, queues outside popular and premium restaurants are getting shorter, and the shopping bags carried around luxury shopping malls seem lighter.
According to the latest data, the Chinese economy grew 9% in the third quarter of 2008, a dazzling performance compared to a 0.5% decline in Britain but a poor fizzle as compared to a blistering 11.9% growth in the same period of 2007 in China. When it did grow at this scorching pace, the talk was often of “overheating” and the government often voiced concern and attempted to rein the economic horse on steroids. But this strain has made a sudden reversal, and the People’s Bank of China cut interest rate for a second time in three weeks to reinvigorate the economy.
While not fully immune to the global virus of uncertainty and anxiety, the Chinese definitely show a higher resistance and resilience. While a relatively healthy and vibrant economy still growing at a 8%+ clip definitely helps, it is the Chinese psyche which possibly also contributes strongly to this feeling. As my colleague Eric Tai remarked “The Chinese have a saying –“Weiji jiu shi zhuanji” or “opportunity arises from crisis”. This positive thinking will definitely help the Chinese tide over the crisis with greater aplomb and the Chinese resilience should help cushion some the pain caused by unrestrained greed and excesses of the Western financial establishment.
Written by Ashok Sethi
Joe the Plumber
The more astute observers saw it coming. First it was the clogged toilet of the international space station and then the defective plumbing in the offices of Lehman Brothers forcing them to spend precious time to walk to the public toilet. Insiders say that the financial engineers at the legendary investment bank were torn between the fear of an opportunity loss of millions of dollars by their temporary absence from their desks and the urgency of relieving themselves. Plumbers sabotaged further by connecting the plumbing pipeline with the financial pipeline and substituting debt paper with toilet paper.
For John McCain and Barack Obama It was the fear of being forced by unusable toilets in the White House and the prospect of walking up to the public WC at the Capitol in the middle of a discussion on the Iraq war, that prompted them to reach out to the plumber lobby with unprecedented concessions and incentives.
Needless to say that members of other professions are not amused at this blatant discrimination. A representative of the baking industry issued a statement, “Our products are the reason why plumbing is so important”. Jack the baker remarked that, “the inspiration of the financial experts to make the stock market rise to such frothy heights came from our success in use of self-rising flour. It is unfair that the plumbing industry is singled out for tax breaks”.
Bill the butcher is also peeved and contemplating his next move. His industry’s effortless shift from prime-cuts to poor quality sub-prime cuts provided the relevant theoretical foundation and the terminology for sub-prime mortgages. The industry has been facing significant hardship as misplaced health concerns drive more and more consumers from steaks to grilled fish and sausages to cucumbers. If special incentives are not provided to stimulate consumption of meat and butchers’ knives not supplied at a subsidized rate, there will be more financial havoc for all and more will be sent to the slaughterhouse. “Don’t kid with us – the steaks are high,” Bill the butcher warned.
However, the most telling response came from Sally the stripper, who has been unsuccessfully lobbying for several years for exemption of entertainment tax on strip dancing by demanding it to be declared an art form. “We are the only ones with untainted assets now,” she proclaimed. “And they are available for inspection to anyone for a small fee. If only there was as much transparency in investment banking as in our profession, we wouldn’t have been in this mess!”
The public in communist China also fail to understand the reason why the plumbing profession has been selected for such preferential treatment. It was traditionally the soldier and the farmer who were of any significance and the businessman and the real estate developer who are of consequence now.
The Indian people in the villages are also left cold and perplexed – most used to the open air fields do not enjoy the benefit of plumbing. Their only interaction with plumbing is the tap for drinking water which is often dry or malfunctioning. They are skeptical that the incentives to the American plumber will improve their access to clean water in any way and dismiss this move as a pure hog wash.
Written by Ashok Sethi
Ashok.set@gmail.com